MI Chief Amos Yadlin: Iran Has Crossed Nuclear Bomb Threshold
Haaretz is reporting that Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin disclosed to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran has crossed the nuclear bomb threshold:
...Yadlin told... the Committee on Wednesday that Iran has "crossed the technological threshold" for making a nuclear bomb. He also said Iran has developed surface-to-surface missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.
Yadlin said achieving a military nuclear capacity "was mainly dependent on a political decision by Iran."
According to Yadlin, the bottleneck in Iran's nuclear weapons program was in obtaining fissionable material.
...The MI chief claimed that the "battle to prevent a nuclear Iran is not yet lost."
Yadlin also said Hamas was preparing for another round of fighting, noting that weapons that Hamas lacked during Israel's Gaza operation, such as long-range rockets, and anti-aircraft and anti-tank weaponry, are being smuggled into Gaza.
Weapons that Hamas lacked during Operation Cast Lead, such as long-range rockets, and anti-aircraft and anti-tank weaponry, are being smuggled into Gaza, Yadlin said, adding that it was "the reason Hamas will not, under any circumstances, sign an agreement to end Gaza smuggling."
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Thursday, March 26, 2009
Iran Nuclear: Playing for Time on Back of US Financial Crisis
USNews.com's Mortimer Zuckerman comments on Iran's nuclear development, the US financial crisis and diplomatic and economic measures which the West can take to blunt Iranian nuclear development by exploiting Iran's economic Achilles' heel:
Iran is making fools of everyone. Even as it lies about how close it is to acquiring nuclear missiles, it continues to menace the political order throughout the Middle East, pressing on with rocketry and rearming Hamas and Hezbollah. And that mischief is nothing to what it will do if it is allowed to become a nuclear power.
A nuclear Iran will be a threat to U.S. national security, worldwide energy security, the efficacy of multilateralism, and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Having defied the world so brazenly, it might become overconfident enough to believe that its conventional or proxy forces could operate without fear of serious reprisals from the United States, Israel, or any other power... Tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands would join radical Islamist groups in the belief that Islamism is on the march.
Fundamentally, a nuclear Iran represents a unique threat. The fear of mutually assured destruction has long restrained other nuclear powers. There is a real risk that the Iranian leadership is not rational, that driven by its mad hatreds, it will act in ways that are unreasonable, even self-destructive. Anti-Americanism is a cornerstone of the ideology of this Islamic state.... The dominant Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterates that Iran's differences with America are more fundamental than political differences.
Whatever may happen to the leadership over time, the inescapable fact is that the United States just cannot take the risk of nuclear missiles in the hands of a clerical regime that preaches genocide.
Every U.S. administration since 1979—yes, including the past one—has reached out to the Iranians. To adopt President Obama's inaugural metaphor, every open hand has met a clenched fist....
It is not that the Iranians don't want to talk—they do. That's how they play for time. Quite simply, they seek the technical know-how that will enable them to produce nuclear weapons in a short period. They are in the midst of building stockpiles of low-enriched uranium from which they can produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear device in a matter of months—a breakout capability. They are adding centrifuges faster than the U.N. Security Council can step up the pressure and are learning about the intricate art of connecting a large number of centrifuges to a vast amount of pipe work, while maintaining everything in a vacuum. Getting centrifuges to run is not the challenge; getting them to run as a single entity is, and they are mastering it. Simultaneously, they are enhancing their ability to launch long-range ballistic missiles, a potential delivery system of nuclear weapons.... The clock is ticking inexorably, a race against time that Iran is winning, getting nearer every day to presenting the world with an Iranian bomb as a fait accompli.
What can be done?
Fortunately, Iran has an economic Achilles' heel: It is dependent on imported gasoline for 40 percent of its refined fuel. Furthermore, the country requires new investments in its energy industry to maintain current production. Reduced oil prices have put a great strain on its economy. Discontent is growing among a citizenry that is suffering from high inflation, unemployment, and poverty. Clearly, it makes sense to play on this fundamental weakness. We must press harder to coordinate four measures:
- An arms embargo.
- A ban on exports to Iran of gas and other refined products to cripple transport.
- A global boycott of the entire banking system of Iran, instead of helping it as European banks are.
- A prohibition on Western countries supplying spare parts to the oil industry.
Before President Obama engages in "aggressive personal diplomacy," as he put it, he would be well advised to allow Iran's economic crisis to take its toll, in the hopes that an economic tailspin will leave the leadership more vulnerable to economic sanctions than it has been in the past 30 years and therefore more ready to come to terms. But there is no certainty that economic sanctions will work in time, leaving us with two unacceptable options: living with a nuclear Iran or acting militarily to prevent it.
The Iranian leaders' judgment is that the current administration is ready to let diplomacy run on and on and on...and will anyway be incapable of making a military move while wrestling with the fallout from our domestic financial collapse. For this reason, many in Iran believe that the United States may be reconciling itself to the idea of living with an Iranian nuclear missile—even though it would be in the hands of an expressly genocidal regime.
///////////TALK TALK TALK IS IRAN'S POLICY///////////////////////////////////////////////
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Israel will be forced to launch a massive air strike lasting a few days at most against Iran’s nuclear sites “if President Obama decides on a policy of engagement that leaves the Iranians with a viable nuclear option.” The following nuclear reactors are likely targets: Arak – Iran’s heavy water plant; Bushehr – Iran’s nuclear reactor; Isfahan – Iran’s nuclear processing plant; Natanz – Iran’s nuclear enrichment plant; Saghand – Iran’s uranium mine. With Iran’s recent launch of the Omid communications satellite and its rhetoric about making Israel disappear off the map, it is not difficult to assume that Israel will be forced to take action.
If the Russians step up the delivery date for large numbers of S-300 missiles, it could foment an earlier attack. The thought that Iran can effectively strike back against Israel through traditional warfare is more fiction than fact. Even without a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel has the capability to completely disrupt the Iranian economy by targeting strategic oil production plants. This would severely hamper an Iranian counterstrike.
Could this be why Tehran’s top nuclear negotiator called the EU’s foreign policy chief on Monday and indicated that Iran was open to such talks and that the discussions should be aimed at “construction cooperation” between Iran and the West.
//////////MORE TALK TALK TALK////////////////////////////////////////////
Obama Considering Another Concession to Iran
Hillel Fendel - Apr 14, 2009
Arutz-7
(IsraelNN.com) The U.S. may drop a key demand on Iran, the NY Times reports, considering allowing it to keep nuclear facilities open during negotiations.
The Obama administration and its European allies are preparing proposals that omit a longstanding American demand that Tehran shut down nuclear facilities during the early phases of talks over its atomic program, the New York Times reports.
The West must "design an approach [towards Iran] that is sensitive to Iran’s pride,” said UN Atomic Agency head Dr. El-Baradei.
The Times quotes “officials involved in the discussions” as saying the proposals under consideration in American-European planning sessions, would actually allow Iran to continue enriching uranium during the talks. The Americans and Europeans would pressure Tehran to gradually open its nuclear program to wide-ranging inspection.
The Times notes that the new proposals represent “a sharp break from the approach taken by the Bush administration, which had demanded that Iran halt its enrichment activities, at least briefly to initiate negotiations.” The Times endorsed Obama during the recent election after often attacking his predecessor, George W. Bush.
The Obama administration has still not completed its review of US policy vis-à-vis Iran, nearly three months after taking office.
Europe: Iran Won`t Bend, So We Will
A European official told the newspaper that it is widely believed that Iran has no intention of immediately shutting down its facilities, and that the Western approach will have to begin more gradually. "We are going to start with some interim steps, to build a little trust,” he said.
Administration officials declined to discuss details regarding their strategy talks with their European allies, but said that any new American policy would “ultimately” require Iran to cease enrichment, as demanded by several UN Security Council resolutions.
Mohamed El-Baradei, who heads the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), appears to have all but conceded that Iran will soon be an atomic power. He told The Times last week that the West must accept the reality that Iran has “built 5,500 centrifuges,” nearly enough to make two weapons’ worth of uranium each year.
“You have to design an approach [regarding demands to inspect Iran’s nuclear plants and the like] that is sensitive to Iran’s pride,” said Dr. El-Baradei.
The Times says that Israel, on the other hand, is not willing to accept such a reality. A senior Israeli official said during a recent visit to Washington that Obama had only until the end of the year to “completely end” Iran’s uranium production. Otherwise, the official made it clear, Israel might revive its efforts to bomb the main uranium plant.
An Obama administration official said the Israelis have not recently repeated their request for cooperation in bombing Iran, but “we don’t think their threats are just huffing and puffing.” Iranian President Mohammed Ahmadinajad has repeatedly threatened Israel, saying it should be wiped off the map.
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