DICK MORRIS: IS HE CORRECT?

SNOWE AND LINCOLN WILL DETERMINE EVERYTHING

By DICK MORRIS

Watch how Maine Republican Olympia Snowe and Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln vote in the Senate Finance Committee on the Baucus version of the Obama healthcare plan. As Snowe and Lincoln go, so will the Congress.

The Democrats need Snowe's vote desperately, to convince wavering moderate Democrats that they can offer a veneer, however thin, of bipartisanship to the health proposal. If Snowe, their last chance at a Republican vote, opposes the Obama/Baucus proposal, there is no hope of a bipartisan fig leaf for the package. On the other hand, if Snowe backs the bill, it will send a signal to moderate Democrats that it's OK to join in and the bill will probably attract the 60 votes it needs for Senate passage.

Lincoln's vote becomes critical if Snowe votes no. Lincoln is probably the single most vulnerable Democrat running for reelection in 2010. She is the proverbial canary in the coalmine. If she makes it, so will all the Democrats. Hailing from a conservative Southern state, her poll numbers suggest that she would be in a heap of trouble with a stiff challenger.

If Lincoln defects and joins the Republicans in voting no (as she has done on a number of amendments), she will do a lot to cement her chances to remain a senator, but will open a wound in the Democratic Party. A domino effect will likely set in.

Her Arkansas colleague, Democrat Mark Pryor, will feel exposed by her defection and will probably consider voting no as well. It will be very hard for the son of moderate David Pryor to explain why Lincoln jumped ship but he chose to stay on board.

Sen. Ben Nelson (D) of Nebraska, encouraged by Lincoln's vote, will probably vote no as well. These negative votes will bring huge pressure on Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana Democrat. Nor can the president count on the support of Joe Lieberman (I) of Connecticut, who has warned that, despite his basic support for the concept of the bill, it would be hard for him to back it given the current economic and fiscal crisis.

Once Obama's plan fails to attract 60 votes, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will fall back on reconciliation as a strategy and hope for 50 votes. But if the Democrats pass the bill with 50 votes, it will set a precedent they may come to rue. It would basically eliminate the filibuster as a parliamentary tactic and would condemn any future minority party (Democrats in 2011?) to the same irrelevance as afflicts their House colleagues. To be in the minority in a chamber run by a bare majority is not a fun task.

However, if Lincoln votes yes, it will send a signal to all moderates that even the most endangered of their species is willing to risk backing the program and will do a great deal to shore up the president's defenses.

All this means that if the elderly citizens of Arkansas and Maine -- and their families -- want to avoid the evisceration of the Medicare program contemplated in the Baucus/Obama bill, they had better get busy. They need to deluge both senators with urgent pleas to vote against the $500 billion cut in the Medicare program. Neither senator can afford to alienate her elderly constituents, but what do they expect when they vote to take the hatchet to Medicare?

Newt Gingrich found out that cutting Medicare is a ticket to political oblivion. Barack Obama will learn the same lesson. The question is: Will Olympia Snowe and Blanche Lincoln join him?

An Urgent Note from Dick Morris:

I have persuaded the League of American Voters to run ten second advertisements in key states that show an elderly person saying: "Senator _________: Please don't cut my Medicare by $500 billion. I need my Medicare." We need to get these ads on in the key states.

We need to focus attention on the cuts in Medicare. It is slashing services to the elderly that is the key point!
///////////////////////
Health Care Update
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 12:45 AM

Dear Policy Patriots -

Thank you for your support of the Free Our Health Care NOW! petition and your support of the National Center for Policy Analysis!

JOIN US IN THE TRENCHES! Late last week, the Senate Finance Committee approved its version of ObamaCare. As a result, the political warfare which has been contained in the Senate and House committees will soon spill onto the floor of both chambers. Congress is taking this week to hear from their constituents. Your representatives want to hear from you!

Thanks to the Free Our Health Care NOW! Action Army, communicating with your representatives is as easy as 1-2-3. Just click here, register and write Congress. You can make a difference in the health care debate!

You Are 'Here'. It's easy to get confused in Congress's labyrinthine legislative process, so here's a quick review for your convenience.

* Over the summer, five Congressional committees-three in the House, two in the Senate-drafted versions of health care legislation. The last (and most important) version of health care legislation will be approved by the Senate Finance Committee sometime later this week or early next week.

* Now, in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid is melding the two Senate committee proposals into one version for presentation to the chamber. The big sticking point is whether to include the public option up front or to try to add it later as an amendment. Including the public option now will force an early floor fight; adding the public option later may make it harder to get the proposal into the final version.

* Meanwhile, in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is consolidating the three House committee versions into one bill (which, given the tenor of the House members, will surely include a public option).

* After Mr. Reid and Ms. Pelosi complete their work, they'll send it to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for a cost estimate (a process called 'scoring').

* Currently, a kind of 'calm before the storm' has settled into Capitol Hill. Mr. Reid has promised to present his version with the CBO's price tag around Columbus Day, so the political storm is expected to break in both chambers late next week.

The Senate Finance Committee's Sausagemaking Wouldn't Pass FDA Standards. In an unconscionable act the Senate Finance Committee literally waited until the middle of the night-around 2 a.m.-before killing two amendments which Committee leaders didn't like.

* On September 24, the Finance Committee unanimously adopted the Enzi amendment, which would delay penalties on employers until the Secretary of Labor certifies that those penalties would not reduce wages or increase unemployment.

* On September 30, the Finance Committee unanimously adopted the Bunning amendment, which would prevent the bill's tax increases from taking effect until the Secretary of Veterans Affairs certifies that the tax increases would not increase the cost of care to veterans.

But in the early morning hours of October 2, with neither Mr. Enzi or Mr. Bunning present, the Committee changed the amendments to require only studies instead of certifications. This change not only takes the teeth out of the Enzi and Bunning amendments, it also foreshadows what we can expect in the future as the bill proceeds through the legislative process.

Nancy Pelosi: A Woman of Words or Deeds? In Speaker Pelosi's mission memo meant to define her tenure as Speaker, she wrote, "Members should have at least 24 hours to examine bill and conference report text prior to floor consideration." Ms. Pelosi's pledge can be found on the Speaker's website or you can access it here (see page 24).

However, Ms. Pelosi has broken that promise on multiple occasions since she was elected as Speaker-the economic stimulus package, cap-and-trade legislation and expansion of S-CHIP. Nevertheless, when recently asked whether she supported a requirement for the health care bill to be posted online for three days before a vote by the House, Ms. Pelosi said, "Absolutely."

Given the disparity between her words and deeds on this issue, the American people simply can't trust Ms. Pelosi to keep her promise.

For a complete assessment of this issue, please go here.

FIGHT BACK! If this doesn't raise your blood pressure, you ought to have it checked! Americans deserve sober, informed decision-making and a transparent legislative process. However, Mr. Reid and Ms. Pelosi are planning on slipping health care legislation pass the American people-even if that means middle-of-the-night legislating. Follow this link to the Free Our Health Care NOW! Action Army so that you can write Congress and demand a three day waiting period for any vote on health care legislation!

Write Your Local Paper! Congress isn't the only place interested in your opinions. Write your local paper and tell them that as taxpayers and as patients, we simply can't afford government-run health care. If you'd like, you can use this letter as a template.

Thank You! Do you remember President Obama's original deadline for health care legislation? It was August 1. In a recent letter to his supporters, President Obama proposed a new deadline: December 31. Thanks to your opposition of government-run health care, we've protected America's health a little longer and increased the odds Congress will pass health care reform that reflects America's needs, not the capricious wants of liberal Congressional leaders.

We make it a point to thank you for your support as often as we can because without you the success of the Free Our Health Care NOW! petition simply wouldn't have been possible.

There is also a wealth of other educational and resource material available, including better alternatives to government-run health care:

Health Care Solutions:
http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Health_Care_Solutions_072909.pdf

Five Steps to a Better Health Care System.
http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Five_Steps_to_a_Better_Health_Care_System_Web.pdf

Dr. John Goodman's Blog - Current, up-to date information on the debate:
www.john-goodman-blog.com

Heartland Institute's Health Care Solutions:
http://www.chcchoices.org

Thank you again for your support of the "Free Our Health Care NOW!" and for fighting against government-run health care.

Warm regards,

Jeanette Nordstrom
National Center for Policy Analysis
www.ncpa.org
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////HEALTH CARE NEEDS HELP, BUT HOW?
Tax the sick: The LATEST new plan

By Dick Morris & Eileen Mc Gann

http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Faced with a need to scrounge for revenue to fund his plan for health care, President Barack Obama and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus have come up with a brilliant new idea: Tax the sick!

In a new amendment to the health care bill, they propose to limit the deductibility of medical expenses on income taxes.

Now, taxpayers may deduct any medical expenses that exceed 7.5% of their Adjusted Gross Income. Obama and Baucus want to raise that threshold to 10% as long as the taxpayer is under 65.

Eight million Americans are sick enough and poor enough that they have to pay more than 7.5% of their income in medical expenses. And it is these folks that the liberals Obama and Baucus plan to tax! Six million of them earn less than $75,000 a year!

For a family earning $75,000 a year and facing out-of-pocket medical bills of $7, 500, this proposal would cost them about $600 a year in extra taxes.

And let's remember who it is that they are taxing. This proposal affects people whose incomes are so limited and whose medical costs are so high that they exceed 7.5% of their pre-tax income.

Their proposal literally hopes to raise $20 billion over ten years by taxing sick people.

The Democrats defend their proposal by saying that it would discourage health care spending. But nobody deliberately spends 7.5% of their income on medical costs unless they are pretty sick and needy.

Obama and Baucus have singled out the sickest among the middle class for this heinous tax. (The poor will not have to pay it because they are eligible for Medicaid). Originally, the Democrats continued their war on the elderly by proposing to tax everyone who spends more than the 7.5% threshold on medical costs. But they retreated when it became clear that six million elderly would be hit with the tax. Now they just sock it to eight million sic k, middle income Americans.

This tax, and their desire to cut Medicare and Medicaid by $500 billion, makes Obama and Baucus unlike any Democrats I have ever known. Democrats, at least when I worked for Clinton, defended the elderly and the sick rather than cut the former and tax the latter.